On Thu, 05 Jan 2006 15:34:09 GMT, "Stormin Mormon"
Post by Stormin MormonAnyone stop to figure it out? We prepare for EMP, The Wookie, and then get
killed by a motorist in a car.
What are the real risks?
Some time ago, when I started to put together my collection of
documents I'd find related to survivalism, I came across this one.
Here is a link to it from the Google archives:
http://groups.google.com/group/misc.survivalism/browse_thread/thread/eefd202efcaeb73d/cc0105ce1f9453c0?lnk=st&q=%22In+the+Beginning%2C+the+Threat+Analysis%22+group%3Amisc.survivalism&rnum=1&hl=en#cc0105ce1f9453c0
or
http://tinyurl.com/bahp4
I'm not sure if there is an updated version out there, but this is the
version I saved and I found it quite adequate.
Good topic. Great for the new people. And better still for those of
us who think we know something :)
Anyway, this was authored by Richard A. De Castro. IMO, it's an
excellent article on the topic. One note I can make is that the book
he refers to at the end of the article by James Wesley, Rawles was
published under the title "Patriots" and Rawles requested that the
shareware version stopped being distributed on the Net and people
instead buy his published book. I bought the original "TEOTWAWKI" and
later, Patriots when it came out, both signed by the author (I'm a
scaled down version of an actual book collector).
Here's a current link to Rawles's home page and the book:
http://www.rawles.to/patriots.htm
=====================================
Survival FAQ - In the Beginning, the Threat Analysis
(c) 1996 by Richard A. De Castro
*Non-commercial use permitted so long as the entire work, with
attribution, is used, and it's not used or associated in any way with
any group or groups with racist or criminal intent.*
Welcome to misc.survivalism and this FAQ. This FAQ is designed to
help people new to the concept of survivalism formulate some plans
that will lead them to gaining the experience, knowledge and materials
they will need to be safe and secure in their lives. Other FAQ's will
address some of the philosophical issues involved, and specific fields
of study (food preservation, etc.) that might be of interest.
Whenever possible, we will provide pointers to the FAQ's of other
newsgroups - if we tried to reinvent every wheel, we'd never get
anywhere.
Others can tell you why you want to survive, and if it's a good or bad
idea. I think that survival is better than any other alternative, and
so I will do everything in my power to maximize the chances of my
family and myself to survive. I presume that you have some serious
interest in the subject, or you wouldn't be reading this.
This FAQ is specifically designed to help you develop your own
specific threat analysis. This threat analysis will describe for you
the things that you are most concerned about happening to you.
Threats are different to each person or group, and they change with
time, the environment and your level of preparedness. For example, in
the 1970's I was particularly concerned with three main threats to my
safety, earthquakes (I live in southern California), global nuclear
war and economic collapse (remember the sort of inflation we had back
then?). Since then, my circumstances have changed so that I'm better
prepared for an economic disaster (although by no means completely
ready, yet), I personally feel that global nuclear war is not a high
threat, (although attack by a terrorist with a nuclear device is
a concern), and I still worry about earthquakes (still in So. Cal).
Your threats and concerns will be different than mine, and personal
threat analysis will of course be different. You might live in areas
that don't have too many earthquakes, but are subject to hurricanes,
or severe winter snows, or something else. You may be better prepared
for the future than I am. And, you may be willing or unwilling to
take some of the steps that I am willing or unwilling to take -
personal defense, for example.
DISCLAIMER: Use at your own risk. Disagree with me civilly, or don't
disagree with me at all - I enjoy a good discussion, but I don't get
paid enough to get upset. Finally, much of what follows is based very
closely on a book by Bruce Clayton, Ph.D. called _Life_After_Doomsday.
The book is very good, excellent even, within it's limits - it was
written around 1980, where the nuclear threat was much more
significant than it is now, and the structure of the US military has
changed so that some of his maps and information about various
military installations has changed. Also, the threat then was from the
Soviet Union, I doubt that the Russian Republics are as much of a
threat today. Clayton offers explanations on why he makes certain
choices, and they're excellent - just change the assumptions to fit
the current facts. I tried to write to both Clayton and his
publisher, asking for permission to use his material, both letters
were returned undeliverable. [Note: I've contacted Dr. Clayton and
am discussing the possibility of encorporating more of his book into
this faq. - RDeC].
The first step:
This analysis will be a long-term process - It's best to write it
down! Get a notepad and a pencil or two, probably an eraser will be
handy as well. This may take several weeks, altogether, for the
preliminary steps. Once you have them, you'll be modifying your lists
often.
Who are you planning for? Are you single, married, with kids,
expecting kids, extended family, pets, friends, neighbors? You first
need to define the universe of people you're worried about. What sort
of problems does that universe present? Does someone have chronic
health needs? Is there an infant that requires diapers and formula?
List the people on a piece of paper, then list the special needs they
have.
Next, on a separate sheet of paper, list all the things that concern
you. Don't worry about putting them in any order, and don't worry
about their relative likelihood - just write them all down.
Some things to think about:
* Natural Disasters:
* Weather
* Floods
* Drought
* Winter Storms
* Hurricanes
* Tornadoes
* Heat
* Climate changes
* New diseases (new forms of diseases)
* Wildfire
* Avalanche
* Mud slides *
* Earthquakes
* Volcanic activity
* Tidal Surges (Tidal Waves, Tsunamis)
Man-made Disasters:
* Political Disasters
* Riot
* Foreign invasion of the US
* Marshal law
* Totalitarian government
* Environmental Disasters
* Hazardous Materials spills
* Nuclear material or plant accidents
* Dam failures
* Water / Air pollution
Economic Disasters:
* Depression
* Inflation
* Loss of your job / income / home
War
* All out nuclear
* Limited nuclear
* Terrorist nuclear
* Chemical (see also Haz Mat)
* Biological (see new diseases)
Terrorist Attack
* Kidnapping
* Hijacking
* Attacks on the infrastructure (water, electricity)
* Hostage taking
* Sabotage (see nuclear accidents, Haz mat)
* see also WAR
Others:
* House damage or destroyed due to fire or accident
* Family subjected to crime
* Robbery
* Burglary
* Car jacking
* Kidnapping
Once you have all the possible threats written down (don't be worried
if you come up with new threats as you work on it, it's a dynamic
process). Write down what that threat will mean to you and your
lifestyle - what will you have or not have, what will you be able to
do or not be able to do, what will you need (even if you already have
it). Finally, rank them in the order that YOU perceive them to be a
threat. For example, if earthquakes are your most serious threat, put
them as number 1. You may have things that you think are equally
threatening - in that case, rank them both at a number - this isn't
supposed to be hard.
Do you see why having a notebook (or better yet, a computer) to do
this with is handy? Don't get frustrated if you have a couple of
false starts, deciding part way through a list to completely start
over. This is a good indication that your knowledge and awareness is
expanding, and the knowledge and experience that you gain will serve
you well. I've been personally studying the entire survivalism field
pretty consistently for more than 20 years, and I still learn new
things, and still add to my list of things to learn, skills to master
and materials to buy.
You should now have a prioritized list of the hazards that you think
are significant. This allows you to devote your time, money and
energy resources to the most important things first. With this list,
you can start deciding what sorts of preparation you need to do to
meet the threat. For example, lets say that hurricanes are your most
significant concern (presumably you live in hurricane land).
Hurricanes can cause power outages, block roads, flood or damage
homes, cause temporary food shortages, create a big mess, etc. So,
what do you need to survive?
What now?
All survival and survivalist preparation can be broken down into
several broad categories, knowledge, skills, experience, and
materials. So, list the things that you need in each area for the
threat - for knowledge, you need to know how to prepare, the skills
you need are in preparation for hurricanes (boarding / taping windows,
first aid, home repairs), you get experience by practicing the skills,
and the materials you need are things like plywood, masking tape,
water storage containers, food that doesn't require refrigeration,
etc. Do this for each threat area.
The kinds of skills and materials you need can be very widespread.
Depending on the threat you're planning for, you might want the
ability to recreate civilization as we know it. This is almost
certainly impossible for one person, or even one family - there are
too many skills needed, and too many kinds of specialty equipment and
materials, for one person to be competent at them all. This is why
survival groups or small communities are almost always preferable.
You don't always need a veterinarian, for instance, but when you do
need one, a plumber won't do.
As you complete this list, you'll find that certain things are needed
for many different threats. First aid skills and materials are always
useful, you may find that they show up for every category. Stored
food and water might be needed for many things as well, while having
and operating a chainsaw might only be needed for a few.
You now have a roadmap of the skills and materials, that you need to
become self-reliant. The longer you pursue the field, the more
information that you'll decide you'll need. For example, you might
decide that you need to be proficient in emergency first aid, food
preservation (drying, smoking, canning, pickling) , animal husbandry,
engine mechanic, construction (design and building), fire fighting,
sailing, fishing, computer programming, ham radios, weaving cloth,
sewing, tanning leathers, bee keeping, accounting, trading, cabinet
making, farming, dentistry, childbirth, small military unit tactics,
advanced emergency medical treatment, improvised explosives, hunting,
trapping, welding, metal working, power production and generation,
telephone systems, and almost anything else you can think of.
Where to get trained: In addition to the various courses that are from
time to time discussed on the internet, your local community probably
offers a wide variety of courses that will help you in your quest.
Check with your local community college, high school adult program,
community center, or other educational programs. Just don't expect to
see a category called "Survivalist Training". Your local fire
department probably offers training in CPR and first aid, and if you
can
join, they'll offer you more and better training. The local law
enforcement agency may offer training as well as your county's civil
defense / emergency preparedness office.
Where to get experience: The best way to learn some skills is to do
it. This can be difficult, since your plans may be based on skills you
simply can't even start learning, yet. For example, learning to grow
food is not hard, but it does require some dirt and space. You may
want to learn how to fix small engines, but can't take your car out of
service. There are lots of other examples.
Generally, you can offer your services as a volunteer to any one of a
number of organizations. For example, if you're not sure how to cook
for large groups of people, volunteer at a food bank, meals-on-wheels,
or church group, and learn! If you want to learn how to build houses
(and fix them, and how to use tools), organizations like Habitat for
Humanity are available, just looking for helpers. You'll learn some
skills, but more importantly, meet people who can show you more tips
and tricks. Organizations like the American Red Cross usually need
disaster workers, first aid instructors, etc., and they'll train you.
Also, it may not be practical to study your specific area of interest,
but can learn something that's closely related. If you don't have a
field to farm, how about a back yard you can start growing a few
vegetables in? If you're an apartment dweller, and don't have a yard
at all, you can grow some vegetables, or even just flowers, in window
boxes. You probably can't provide all your food needs from a window
box (unless it's a huge window), but you can start finding out what
it's like, what works, and what doesn't.
Commercial Schools. In general, survivalist and survival oriented
commercial schools are an iffy proposition. There's no standards for
the course content, and some instructors seem to think (and worse,
teach) that they're way is the only one true way to do something.
Schools like this are dangerous, and should be avoided. Survival, and
Survivalism, is the art of the possible - there are lots of ways to
build a shelter, depending on what you have available, the time
available, and the weather you need to be sheltered from, no one style
is ideal. No one idea is right in the entire spectrum of knowledge
and learning, and it's up to the student to be aware of the different
styles and schools of thought. Some schools are also quite expensive,
and the worth is left to the student to determine.
Areas that schools can be a great benefit in include shooting and
firearms. The more famous schools, like Thunder Ranch in Texas, and
Gunsite in Arizona, have taught thousands of people how to be the most
proficient with firearms they can be. They offer a graduated series
of classes to take a student from little or no experience to being
phenomenally quick and accurate with all sorts of firearms, but these
schools are not quick or cheap.
Materials. It's almost impossible to completely develop a list
of everything that you might need to survive. Even the US Military,
which has a great deal of experience in people living in strange
places under less than ideal circumstances, finds that they neglect
something or other, and things they thought were important weren't.
It's possible to have a pretty good idea of what you need, though,
with a little diligence and effort.
Keep track of everything you buy for a year, including food,
toiletries, cleaning supplies, clothes, etc. Don't get too worried
about doing it for a year, although you should track it for a full
year - peoples appetites change over a year. You can start preparing
with one quarter's list, you just might be modifying it. It's more
important to get started than it is to wait hoping to get it all
perfect in one attempt, and find that time has run out. After a
period of time, you'll have a good idea of what it takes to live and
support yourself for that period. You can begin stockpiling based on
that list, after you take into account the changes that are almost a
sure thing - if you have small kids, they'll grow up and eat more, for
example.
Inventory what's on the shelf. Don't worry too much about things that
have been there for a long time. In general, if you don't have to
replace things within a year they aren't a significant part of your
diet, and you don't need to store them (except perhaps as a barter
item).
Practice with new things. Buy some flour, and practice making
breads and things from scratch. Buy some whole grains, and a grinder,
and make your own flour. It's critically important that you know how
to use these sorts of foods if you're going to make them a part of
your survival plans, especially for children.
Getting the stuff - Develop a rotation program - whatever you
get, when you put it in storage, date it using a waterproof pen or
pencil, then use the oldest first. This will keep the freshest for
emergencies.
Food - for fresh and canned, get one extra every time you buy
something. This includes common toiletries such as soap, toothpaste
(and tooth brushes), etc. Clothing. First of all, save old things
that might be a little too ragged for regular use. Buy sturdy
clothes. Learn to patch things, and store the required materials
(spare buttons, needles, thread, scissors, etc.) You might even want
to learn to knit, and store the required materials. Books: The most
comprehensive listing of books that might be useful for survival and
survivalists is posted once or twice a month on the internet, in the
misc.survivalism newsgroup. It has hundreds of both non-fiction
educational books, and fictional motivational books. Barter: You may
think that by having lots of stuff you'll be able to barter for
everything else that you need.
Tools: Your roadmap will list many items that are best considered
tools. Things that you might not normally need, such as hand tools,
first aid and medical equipment, rope, farming implements (shovels,
rakes, etc.), kerosene or white gas lanterns, chain saws, power tools,
repair materials, etc. You can start determining what you need, and
putting these items on your list, with expected quantities. Have a
section to keep track of both the things you need, and the things that
you have and where they are - you'll be surprised at how easy it is to
forget that you've already got something, and how hard it is to find
when you need it. This list is by no means complete or comprehensive,
but it does give an idea of some things that you may want to start
stockpiling.
Finances: Most likely, whatever you think your threat(s) will be,
your financial condition will be a significant factor. I personally
feel that an economic disaster (including a nationwide depression, and
possibly hyperinflation) is a strong possibility, and if you agree you
should do whatever you can do prepare for it. With societies current
"enjoy now, pay later" mentality, and the absolute fact that almost
nobody in the US has any significant liquid savings (your home doesn't
count, since in an economic disaster you wouldn't be able to sell it
for your mortgage cost), we are all in trouble. Combine that with the
impending crash of Social Security (the current 1996 average monthly
payment for social security is around $900) and people not having any
long term savings for retirement, we're in a dangerous position.
In the near term, do everything you can to remove any short-term
(credit card, auto loan, home-equity loan) debt that you have. This
doesn't mean getting a "bill consolidation" loan, it means cutting up
your credit cards, getting a second job for you and your spouse, and
paying the debt off. Once you have no regular expenses except for
telephone and utilities and perhaps your mortgage, you're in a better
position to survive than most everyone in the US.
Are there times for short-term credit? Certainly, but not as a way of
life. I have to laugh (or cry) when I see people at the grocery
store, paying with their credit cards. It's OK so long as they pay
the bill off completely each month, but how many people do that? How
many people do you know that are just increasing their credit card
debt, and so long as they continue to pay the minimum every month, the
credit card companies will keep increasing their limits and giving
them new cards.
I personally never buy any product on my credit card if it won't
be around when the bill arrives, if I can. I pay cash for gasoline and
restaurant meals, and use my checking account for almost everything
else except airline tickets, hotels, and renting cars. It's one way I
use to "sanity check" a purchase. It also means that I have large
unused balances on my credit cards, available for some emergency that
might require me to break my rules. Save all the cash you can, do
without things that aren't necessary for your life. Instead of buying
a new car, maintain the one you have. Invest your money in your
future - by getting the things you'll need for it, and by reducing
your dependence on forces and factors that you have no control over.
In the longer term, in addition to your home, you might want to
start collecting hard assets, including pre-1964 "junk" silver coins.
They're called junk silver since they have no collectors value, but
are (almost) pure silver. You might still occasionally see silver
coins in circulation (if you're incredibly lucky), if you do then snap
them up. Otherwise, you might start buying a few, dimes and quarters,
as you're able to. But, don't pay a huge premium over the bullion
price. Get a book on precious metals investing to find out more.
Once you have some silver, you might want to hedge your bets buy
getting some gold. Again, don't pay a huge premium over the bullion
price, and be very careful of what you're doing. Gold is too
concentrated a form of wealth to be very useful in an economic crisis
- silver is probably better.
Major investments: Your planning may lead you to decide that you need
to make some very serious investments. You may decide that your
security requires you to move from the city you live in, and find a
retreat. You may decide that you need to buy a new or different
vehicle, or some items that have little use in your life other than
survivalism. If your personal threat assessment and roadmap leads you
to this conclusion, be careful. You don't want to get yourself into
financial difficulties while you're trying to prepare yourself for
survival. Other than that, the resources listed in the
misc.survivalism books.list are much better able to describe the
things to look for, and watch out for.
Other sources of information:
Books: In addition to Life After Doomsday, which is a good primer
on most everything, I maintain two lists - one is a summary of well
over one hundred books on all topics relating to survivalism, and
another is a list of several hundred mail order sources of equipment.
These are posted every two weeks (approximately) to misc.survivalism.
Misc.survivalism is also a good place to ask questions, with a wide
variety of people to provide answers. This is both good and bad,
sometimes the people are not as competent as others, and may steer you
the wrong way. But, there will usually be others to correct the
misstatements.
One of the more interesting ways of learning about some of the
threat, and preparation, that's available is the cyber-book The Gray
Nineties, by Jim Rawles. This book is currently available on the
internet from http://www.teleport.com/~ammon/gn/cover.htm.
While I don't necessarily agree with all of Jim's assumptions and
plans, he has written a good story about the plans and lives of
several people after an economic collapse in the US.